The 2023 Report of The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change emphasizes a critical need for urgent action to limit temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. With the world heading towards 2.7°C of heating by 2100, and energy-related emissions at a record high, the report warns of catastrophic threats to global health.
Dr. Marina Romanello, Executive Director of The Lancet Countdown, underscores the inadequacy of current mitigation efforts and the immense human cost of inaction. The 8th Lancet Countdown report, compiled by 114 experts globally, examines the intersection of health and climate change.
Released ahead of the 28th UN Conference of the Parties (COP), it introduces 47 indicators, including metrics on household air pollution, fossil fuel financing, and international organizations’ engagement on health co-benefits of climate mitigation. Dr. Romanello highlights the upcoming COP28 as a pivotal opportunity to drive equitable fossil fuel phase-out and accelerate mitigation and adaptation efforts.
The report reveals the tangible impact of climate inaction, with 2023 witnessing the hottest global temperatures in over 100,000 years. Even at the current 1.14°C of heating, health-threatening high temperatures are increasing, contributing to a surge in heat-related deaths in people over 65.
Extreme weather events are compromising water security and food production, leading to increased malnutrition risks for millions. Changing weather patterns also contribute to the spread of infectious diseases.
Health care systems, already strained at 1.14°C, face challenges as 27% of surveyed cities express concerns about being overwhelmed by climate change impacts. Economic losses from extreme weather events reached $264 billion in 2022, with heat exposure causing a global loss of 490 billion potential labor hours.
The report presents projections for a 2°C warmer world, highlighting a 370% increase in heat-related deaths by mid-century and substantial rises in labour hours lost and food insecurity. The spread of infectious diseases, such as Vibrio bacteria causing diarrheal diseases, is expected to intensify. Contrary to the urgency needed, the report shows a concerning trend of increasing investments and lending in fossil fuels.
Global energy system emissions rose to a record 36.8 Gt, while governments continued fossil fuel subsidies. Private banks invested $489 billion annually in fossil fuels, hindering the transition to zero-emission energy. Major oil and gas companies increased projected fossil fuel production, undermining compliance with the Paris Agreement.
The report underscores the transformative opportunities of a health-centred, zero-carbon future. Transitioning to clean energy, improving air quality, promoting active and electric travel, and adopting low-carbon diets could prevent millions of deaths annually. Despite the challenges, some positive trends include a nearly 16% reduction in deaths from fossil fuel-derived air pollution since 2005 and a 15% growth in global clean energy investment in 2022.
The Lancet Countdown report issues a stark warning about the escalating health risks associated with climate change and the urgent need for global collaboration. It calls for defending public health against fossil fuel interests and emphasizes the imperative for transformative climate action today to secure a thriving future for present and future generations.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres underscores the urgency, stating that humanity faces an intolerable future without powerful and immediate action to limit global temperature rise and transition from fossil fuels to renewables.
Journal Reference
The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms, The Lancet (2023). DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01859-7
