Even with constant medical and public health advancements, human life expectancy has only risen by only six and half years since 1990, as per the recent analysis. The Nature Ageing paper, “Implausibility of Radical Life Extension in Humans in the 21st Century” provides new evidence that people are starting to reach a biological ceiling of longevity.
The primary contributors to life expectancy gains have come from preventing disease in the first place, noted the study’s lead author S. Jay Olshansky of the University of Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health. That leaves the impact of ageing as the only major factor preventing further growth.
“Well, at least 50 percent of the people who are at older ages today are living on time that has been added by medicine,” said Olshansky, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics. “But these medical Band-Aids are producing fewer years of life even though they’re happening at a faster rate, meaning that the period of fast improvements in life expectancy is now known to be over.”
”Our study disproves the notion that the innate human lifespans are set at some point in the future than where we are now,” Olshansky said.
That may mean more people will live to 100 or more in this century but those will still be exceptions that will not shift the average life expectancy by a lot according to Olshansky.
That conclusion goes against products and industries including insurance and wealth management companies that now factor in people’s average lifespans to be a century.
“This is terrible advice because very few people will make it to the third age in this century,” Olshansky said. But the research did not exclude the possibility that medicine and science could deliver additional improvements, he said.
We should be investing in geroscience—the study of ageing biology—which may be the next big thrust in health and life extension.
”It is a glass ceiling, not a brick wall here, and such problems are solvable” Olshansky said. “There’s plenty of room for improvement: in order to prevent diseases and complications, eradicating inequalities and compelling individuals to change their behaviours – which can result in longer and healthier lives. This is the glass health and longevity ceiling and it can be broken through by geroscience and tries to reduce ageing.
Reference:
University of Illinois at Chicago. Despite medical advances, life expectancy gains are slowing Medical Xpress
