A key challenge in the healthcare system is ensuring sufficient capacity to meet future demand. To address this, the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) annually reports projections comparing physician supply with expected demand. The latest estimates predict a shortage of 13,500 to 86,000 physicians by 2036. This represents 1.6% to 10.1% of the current workforce. These estimates vary by geographic region and specialty.
Radiologist shortages are frequently reported; however, no exact estimates are available. It is necessary to examine the non-radiologist roles, artificial intelligence (AI) influence, retirements, productivity, reimbursement, practice patterns and residency positions in order to establish the supply of radiologists. The workforce’s adequacy depends on the changing demand for imaging. Â
A recent study published in the Journal of the American College of Radiology aimed to predict the number of radiologists in the future by examining the residency and attrition trends. This study also provides a reference point for comparing supply trends with imaging utilization.
In this retrospective study, two claims data were included. National Residency Matching Program (NRMP) data from 2005 to 2024 were used to estimate the current radiologist workforce. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) National Downloadable Files (NDF) data from 2014 to 2023 were utilized to evaluate radiologist workforce attrition. Radiologists caring for Medicare patients were included, whereas those providing care to pediatrics were excluded.
A non-linear regression model analyzed the variations in workforce attrition by gender and between pre- and post-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) periods. A linear regression method was predicated on the radiology resident positions, filled jobs, and new hires from NRMP data. The projected radiologist supply through 2025 was estimated by combining attrition and new entrants.
In 2023, 37,482 radiologists were registered to provide care to Medicare patients. From 2005 to 2024, the number of radiologist positions rose from 1,023 to 1,382; similarly, the number of positions filled increased from 972 to 1,378. If positions remain unchanged after 2024, the estimated radiologist workforce will be 47,119 in 2025, which reflects a 25.7% increase from 2023. If residency positions continue to grow after 2024, the prediction will rise to 52,591 radiologists in 2025, resulting in a 40.3% increase.
During the 2014 to 2023 attrition, the average years of practice were 35.7 for male radiologists and 34.2 for female radiologists. An unadjusted annual mean attrition was found to be 1.9% ± 0.14% for female and 2.4% ± 0.15% for male radiologists. The male radiologists had significantly more years of practice than females during this study period. After adjusting for years of practice and pre- versus post-COVID-19, females had statistically higher attrition than males.
Annual attrition was significantly higher in the post-COVID-19 period compared to the pre-COVID-19 (3.0% ± 0.17% vs 1.9% ± 0.14%). This variation was equivalent to a reduction in the workforce (3,116 radiologists) in 2055.
This study has several limitations, including its focus on radiologists providing care to Medicare patients, NRMP underrepresentation, pooled specialties, uncertain residency trends, incomplete radiologist data, and unknown long-term COVID-19 attrition effects.
This study concluded that by 2025, the radiologist workforce could increase by 40.3% compared to 2023 if residency positions grow and 25.7% higher if they remain unchanged. It also highlighted that if post-COVID-19 attrition rates persist, the radiologist workforce could be significantly reduced by 2055.
Reference: Christensen EW, Parikh JR, Drake AR, Rubin EM, Rula EY. Projected US radiologist supply, 2025 to 2055. J Am Coll Radiol. 2025;22(2):161-169. doi:10.1016/j.jacr.2024.10.019
